According to a new research paper published in Nature Food, recent climate-related changes are going to impact future crop yield and this has become a major concern for scientists.
Jonas Jagermeyr is a leading crop modeler and climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has commented that new climate changing conditions are pressing crop yields outside of their normal range in more parts every day. As humans have made greenhouse gas emissions which is the main cause behind higher temperature. The irregular shifts in rainfall patterns and the increasing rate of carbon dioxide in the air are together affecting the crop growth.
All this will result into the losses of farmers if they are not going to adapt fast the changing planting dates or use different crop varieties as soon as possible to avoid the losses.
So, the team of researchers has created the largest ensemble of future yield projections by combining a set of new climate projections and various state-of-the-art crop models. As the researchers have found significant changes is going to take place in the very near future and across a wide range of growing regions.
As maize is grown in a wide range of latitudes which includes sub-tropical and tropical countries where higher temperature is more dangerous than other cooler high-latitude regions. In the coming years, countries like North and Central America, West Africa, Central and East Asia is going to see a decline of maize yields by more than 20 percent. But on the other hand, wheat will increase its productivity under climate change in areas such as Northern United States and Canada, and China.
Christoph Muller is a co-researcher at the Potsdam Institute, has commented that according to data of their research has shown that poorer countries are more likely to experience the sharpest declines in yields of their main crops. We have to understand that wheat gains in the Global North is not be able to make up for maize losses in the Global South.
Poor countries and smallholder farmers lack the conditions to procure food on the world market. So, the projected fundamental change in agricultural production patterns will affect food security in some regions, while other regions will be benefited.