Top hurricane forecasters said that the world should expect another above-normal season this year. They have said this after two of the most active hurricane seasons on record in 2020 and 2021.
Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University has stated that 19 named tropical storms will form in 2022 and among them 9 will become hurricanes.
An average season contains 14 tropical storms. 7 of these tropical storms become hurricanes. If the prediction od the scientists are true, then it will be the seventh consecutive above-normal season.
A tropical storm turns into a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph. Of the nine predicted hurricanes, four are expected to spin into major hurricanes. These hurricanes will have wind speeds of 111 mph or more than that. Scientists said there’s a 71% chance that one major hurricane will make landfall in the U.S.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Storms sometimes form outside those dates. Storms have formed in May in each of the past seven years. Scientists said, the reasons for the above-average forecast include the predicted lack of El Niño and warmer-than-normal seawater in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
A major determining actor in hurricane forecasting is if we are in an El Niño or La Niña climate pattern. El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water. It suppresses the development of Atlantic hurricanes. La Niña, on the other hand tends to increase hurricanes in the Atlantic.
El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic and it can tear apart developing hurricanes.
