The warming effect of anthropogenic aerosol reduction will superimpose on the cooling effect caused by the reduction of CO2. A new study has found this. This will lead to a great surface temperature increase. Temperature reduction and cooling rate will be delayed because of it.
The aerosol effect will extent the time to reach the Paris Agreement targets. This will also lead to a long-term cooling trend in the North Atlantic region.
Atmospheric CO2 have its impact on surface temperature. But the role of aerosols also cannot be ignored.
To gain carbon neutrality, we need to reduce anthropogenic emissions. The concentration of CO2 and aerosols together will have a downward trend in the future.
But the same trends in aerosols and CO2 will have opposite radiative effects. Because the warming effect of reduced aerosols is simultaneous with the cooling effect of reduced CO2. Aerosols also effect dynamic processes in the ocean. This alters features in the ocean temperature.
Scientists have used the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to find out the impact of future reductions in aerosols on surface temperature. Scientists have done fixed-aerosol experiments. They have compared the results with all-forcing simulations.
Scientists said that decline of aerosols will cause continued warming effect. This will increase the global surface temperature.
In the low-emission scenario, North Atlantic have long-term cooling trends. These trends are dominated by aerosols and CO2 is secondary here. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have impacts upon the regional inconsistency of temperature changes.
As anthropogenic aerosols reduce, the AMOC weakens. In the 21st century, the northward heat transport in weakening in the Atlantic. The cold signals are gathering in the subpolar North Atlantic. This is causing significant cooling trends in sea surface temperatures. This cooling trends are inducing local ocean to absorb more heat from the atmosphere.